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☆ JPMorgan drops its recession call for the first half and now sees a 55% chance of a soft landing for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan scrapped its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and now sees 55% odds of a soft landing. The bank sees a 30% chance that global expansion persists without major policy easing. AdvertisementJPMorgan has backed off from its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and says it now sees a 55% chance of a "soft landing" for the global economy through late next year. Related storiesBut now, with upbeat data painting a rosier picture, the bank sees a 55% chance of a soft landing scenario extending through at least the end of next year. On the earnings side, corporates in developed markets surpassed expectations last year, with margins holding close to record highs, demonstrating surprisingly resilient profitability despite high policy rates.

Persons: —, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton, Kasman, Lupton, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service

☆ Your VO2 max is like a '401(k) for longevity' — here's how to invest in it for better heart health and a longer life
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-02 | by ( ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Having a higher VO2 max is good, but more important for health is how the number changes over time. There's a way to use VO2 max to improve heart health and fitness without getting too bogged down in the data. So you have a higher VO2 max, you have a better endurance capacity," Blander said. Men tend to have a slightly higher VO2 max, so an example for an active man could be around 42 mL/kg/min. "If you have higher VO2 max you have a much better chance based on our data analysis to live better, longer, which is amazing," Blander said.

Persons: —, Bryan Johnson, Gil Blander, It's, Blander, Archibald Hill, Hartley Lupton, Edo, Louw, Paz, Mike Thomson, Kate Baird, Baird, Thomson, Nico De Pasquale Organizations: Service, Apple, Cleveland Clinic, White Plains Hospital, Getty Locations: Edo Paz, White

☆ Watch the moment Lauren Boebert was asked to 'give the definition of carpetbagger' in the first GOP debate in her new district
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewOn Thursday, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert faced several GOP opponents in the first primary debate for Colorado's 4th congressional district. Related stories"My boys and I needed a fresh start," said Boebert. In the CO-04 GOP primary debate last night, @RepBoebert was asked by opponent @LynchForCO to "give the definition of carpetbagger." "My boys and I needed a fresh start," said Boebert. pic.twitter.com/pQ5Jslc7wr — bryan metzger (@metzgov) January 26, 2024Boebert had been facing a bruising reelection bid in her old district, which she won by less than 600 votes in 2022.

Persons: —, Lauren Boebert, It's, Boebert, That's, Mike Lynch, Colorado House —, Lynch, Mary, Jayson, @RepBoebert, @LynchForCO, pQ5Jslc7wr — bryan metzger, @metzgov, Deborah Flora, Sen, Kerry Donovan, wouldn't, Donovan Organizations: Service, Republican, GOP, Business, Colorado House, Capitol, Democrat Locations: Colorado, Denver, Fort Lupton, Colorado's

☆ Boebert Is Target of Rivals at Debate for New-to-Her District
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Chris Cameron | More About Chris Cameron | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Representative Lauren Boebert, the far-right firebrand, faced off against eight Republican opponents on Thursday night in a debate in the new Colorado district she is seeking to represent in Congress. After barely managing to win re-election in Colorado’s Third Congressional District against a Democrat in 2022, she is running this year in a much more conservative district, the Fourth. On Thursday evening, Ms. Boebert appeared at ease delivering fiery rhetoric and espousing her pro-Trump, hard-right stances among similarly conservative peers at the debate in Fort Lupton. “Everyone will talk like a Freedom Caucus member, but there is only one who governs as a Freedom Caucus member,” Ms. Boebert said in her opening statement, adding that she did not expect a “coronation” in her new district and that she looked forward to “earning your vote.”But Ms. Boebert also faced steady criticism from her rivals about switching districts — having relocated to the other side of the state to improve her chances after a strong primary challenger emerged in the Third District.

Persons: Lauren Boebert, Boebert, ” Ms Organizations: Congressional, Democrat, Trump, Caucus, Third Locations: Colorado, Colorado’s, Fort Lupton

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was almost brusque in his re-statement of the central bank's anti-inflation commitment at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Tracking that rather than more-skittish policy rate futures would have proved a better guide to how subsequent months panned out and to the summer doldrums in bonds and stocks. And yet the September meeting could still be the 'big reveal' as it sees publication of the Fed's updated 'dot plot' that will likely show just where they then see the cycle crest. San Francisco Fed chart on dispersion of Fed rate projections by horizonSan Francisco Fed index of Fed uncertaintyACCIDENT OR DESIGN? As to whether the Fed is guiding everyone to safe and happy place, there continues to be sceptics about the 'soft landing'.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, that's, it's, Andrew Foerster, Zinnia Martinez, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta, San Francisco Fed, San, Fed, San Francisco, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, synch, San Francisco Fed

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - The economic pain of higher interest rates seems duller than many had braced for only late last year - and subdued household debt burdens may be at least partly responsible. More interest rate sensitive countries with more flexible loan rates - such at Canada, Australia and Sweden - are already turning higher. What's more, the overall impact of higher borrowing rates is partly offset by rising interest rates on savings. And so net of interest income, JPMorgan points out, interest costs are up only 0.2 percentage point of disposable personal income since the start of the Fed hiking cycle early last year. Higher costs are still coming with a lag for many and will drag on the economies further from here.

Persons: Jerome Powell, JPMorgan's Joseph Lupton, Maia Crook, Lupton, Crook, it's, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Canada, Australia, Sweden, Britain, Central

Based on traditional and long-abandoned fixed policy models, Cleveland Fed researchers reckon policy is already more aggressive than any of those rules suggest. The political and policy appetite for zero interest rates or quantitative easing - which seemed to chase estimates of R-star ever lower over the past decade - is gone. At the same time, real yields above 4% have proven unsustainable historically. Bhatia feels real yields somewhere in the middle is where markets will settle. Given the economy-wide accumulation of debt over recent years, real 10-year yields in a 1.5%-2.0% range probably works.

☆ They've seen enough: Trump-backing CPAC attendees want to freeze the 2024 field before things get any messier
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Warren Rojas | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Trump fans told Insider no one else should jump in because things are already too mixed up. "What I'm most looking forward to, obviously, is President Trump," she said, noting that she planned to be front and center for his keynote address on Saturday evening. "I think that's a good group," he said, adding, "That's enough." But President Trump is the one that we need," Le told Insider. CPAC attendee Thao Le shows off the Donald Trump pin on her American flag-themed hat on Thursday, March 2, 2023.

☆ Brace for a 'wrathful Old-Testament-style' central bank reaction to sticky inflation that could cause a deep US recession, says JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Prepare for a more forceful "Old-Testament style" central bank reaction to stubborn inflation, JPMorgan economists say. "The risk of triggering a more wrathful Old-Testament style central bank reaction is on the rise," they said in a note. Such aggressive policy reaction could lead the US economy into a deeper recession later this year, they added. "The risk of triggering a more wrathful Old-Testament style central bank reaction is on the rise. Possible scenarios projected by the analysts include the Fed ending rate hikes next quarter, with its cumulative rate hikes of about 500 basis points since early 2022 leading to a US-concentrated recession later this year.

Two police officers in Colorado have been charged nearly two months after a 20-year-old was seriously injured when she was struck by a train while handcuffed in the back seat of a patrol SUV parked on a railroad crossing. The Colorado Bureau of Investigation has said the officers were responding Sept. 16 to an alleged road rage incident involving a gun. Two Fort Lupton officers arrived and she was detained on suspicion of felony menacing. She was placed in the back of the Platteville officer's vehicle, which the train hit as it was traveling northbound while officers searched her car. Rios-Gonzalez was charged with one count of felony menacing, the district attorney's office said.

☆ Colorado police officers charged with leaving handcuffed woman in car struck by train
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Keith Coffman | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DENVER, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Two Colorado police officers were charged on Monday with leaving a handcuffed woman in a patrol car parked on railroad tracks, where it was struck by a freight train, seriously injuring her. The woman was charged with felony menacing over an alleged road-rage incident that led to her arrest in a traffic stop, the Weld County District Attorney's Office said in a statement. Officers from multiple agencies responded to the incident, and Rios-Gonzalez was stopped, handcuffed and placed in the back of a patrol vehicle that was parked straddling the train tracks, police said. Rios-Gonzalez suffered nine broken ribs, a broken arm and leg, broken teeth and other injuries, said her lawyer, Paul Wilkinson. Wilkinson said he was told last week that Rios-Gonzalez would be charged, which he called disappointing.

A 20-year-old woman was seriously injured when the parked police patrol car she was detained in was struck by a train in Colorado. A Platteville police officer stopped the woman's car just past a set of railroad tracks and parked the patrol car on the crossing. "Stopping your car on the train tracks, getting out of your car and leaving your car parked on the train tracks with someone inside, if that's not recklessness I don’t know what is," Farrell said. Had it not been a police officer who parked on the train tracks, Farrell said he suspects charges would have already been filed. "Imagine if a mother parked her car across train tracks with a 2-year-old child inside and the car got hit.

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